Even with Emissions Cuts, the Future Could Be Dire, Study Finds
A recent study suggests that even if we succeed in cutting carbon emissions, our descendants may still face serious challenges.
Researchers at Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) warn that by the year 2200, Earth could warm by a staggering 7°C (12.6°F) — even under scenarios with low carbon emissions.
Such extreme warming would make it difficult for common crops to survive, potentially causing global food shortages and famine.
At the same time, rising sea levels from melting ice would force people to abandon coastal cities. Extreme weather events — including droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, tropical storms, and floods — would also become increasingly frequent and severe.
Dangerously high temperatures, especially during summer, could put people of all ages at risk.
Lead study author Christine Kaufhold stressed the urgency of stronger climate action: “Our findings show a pressing need to accelerate both carbon reduction and removal efforts. We discovered that peak warming could be significantly higher than expected under low-to-moderate emission scenarios.”
Fossil fuel use — particularly coal and natural gas — remains a major source of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane, both of which trap heat in the atmosphere. Natural processes, such as plant respiration, volcanic activity, and animal emissions, also release greenhouse gases, making carbon removal technologies essential.
For this study, the researchers used a cutting-edge climate model known as CLIMBER-X. It accounts for a range of biological, geochemical, and physical processes, including those related to methane in the atmosphere and oceans.
Methane, which is even more potent than CO2, is released by sources like decomposing landfill waste and natural wetland emissions.
The model examined three “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSPs), representing low, medium, and high emission scenarios through the year 3000 — far beyond the 2300 horizon used in most climate projections.
One key finding: even if emissions start declining today, there’s still a 10% chance that global temperatures could rise by 3°C (5.4°F) by 2200.
This is due to “carbon cycle feedback loops,” where one change in the climate intensifies another. For example, wetter conditions can spur the growth of vegetation that becomes fuel for wildfires when dry. Similarly, thawing permafrost could release vast amounts of trapped CO2 into the atmosphere.
These feedback effects are difficult to stop — and they may continue to impact the climate long after emissions have slowed, raising concerns that reductions alone won’t be enough.
Achieving the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C (3.6°F) is only possible under extremely low emissions scenarios. The agreement, signed in 2015, aims to keep global warming under 1.5°C (2.7°F), but scientists warn that this goal is slipping away.
“The window to stay below 2°C is closing rapidly,” said study co-author Matteo Willeit. “Carbon reduction must accelerate faster than we previously thought if we want to keep the Paris target within reach.”
Published in Environmental Research Letters, the study highlights the deep uncertainties in forecasting future climate change.
“Our research is a stark reminder — the decisions we make today will shape life on Earth for centuries,” said co-author and PIK director Johan Rockström. “We are already seeing signs that Earth’s systems are losing resilience, potentially triggering feedback loops that increase climate sensitivity, accelerate warming, and cause deviations from current projections.”
“To ensure a livable future, urgent action is required. The Paris Agreement is not just a political goal — it represents a physical boundary we cannot afford to cross.”
